Service Today (NOW) provides global businesses to industries, universities, and governments with cloud computing solutions to digitize their workflows.
The company’s technology platform, referred to as the Now Platform, allows for connections of systems, loops, departments, and processes with digital workflows giving IT departments the ability to design, develop, and operate throughout the IT lifecycle.
ServiceNow’s finances have seen a massive expansion since the company’s public listing, which last year showed no signs of slowing down. The company has recently started to post improvements to its free cash flow generation records, and with the stock recently shrinking from its previous highs, investors may want to revisit its investment case. .
However, I still find ServiceNow shares to be somewhat overvalued. Because of this, I am neutral on the stock.
Recent Results
ServiceNow’s Q4 2021 was pretty strong, with revenues growing 29% year-over-year to $ 1.61 billion, more than Wall Street’s estimates of $ 1.60 billion.
While this revenue growth rate looks strong but isn’t impressive, it’s worth looking at the charges. Since most of ServiceNow’s revenue is derived from a subscription model, charges provide a clearer picture of the business growth trend than revenues.
The charges reflect deals signed in the quarter and deferred revenue growth, which will be fulfilled as revenue in the coming quarters. Total bills for the period grew 33% to $ 2.53 billion, eliminating any recent concerns, including the company’s slowdown in growth.
ServiceNow’s profitability is also evolving along with revenues as the company measures its margins over time. For context, gross margins widened from close to 64% in 2014 to approximately 77% in recent quarters. The company posted earnings per share of $ 0.13 compared to $ 0.09 in the comparable period last year.
However, due to the company’s reporting on relatively high levels of stock-based compensation, it is better to take its free cash flow. In its most recent results, free cash flow reached $ 744 million, up 31.9% year-over-year.
More importantly, however, it indicates a free cash flow margin of 46%, which is quite impressive and, along with ServiceNow’s SaaS model, suggests that the company is gradually becoming a cash cow.
Taking on Wall Street
Turning to Wall Street, ServiceNow has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 18 Buys and two Holds assigned over the past three months. At $ 684.95, ServiceNow’s average price target suggests 15.9% upside potential over the next 12 months.
Appreciation and Conclusion
ServiceNow’s growth is undeniably very strong, and the company’s most recent billing metrics suggest it is likely to remain the case. Additionally, with each consecutive quarter of higher revenues amid its SaaS business model, the company should print money in the future.
ServiceNow is expected to generate revenues close to $ 7.42 billion in 2022. If we put a reasonable free-cash-flow margin of 35% (free-cash-flow margin that landed 32% in 2021) on this amount, the The company could generate free cash flow close to $ 2.37 billion this year.
At its current price level, the stock is trading at approximately 45 times its FCF potential this year. I think this bulk is relatively wealthy despite the quality of the company’s earnings and strong growth showing. I believe that a fairer P/FCF below 40 will still reflect the growth prospects of the stock while offering investors a more significant margin of safety.
Accordingly, I am neutral on ServiceNow.
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