The S&P 500 hasn’t regained any footing – the CPI’s judgment on even the very temporary notion of peak inflation, is strong in its implications for increasing pressure on the Fed to do more. Not one thing, but more – more rate increases. Now, we’re talking about the 75bp rate hike emerging, and even a series of hitherto unimaginable increases will do the job of destroying (practically speaking) double digit inflation. The window of opportunity for the Fed to act before it has to step back and support the real economy, is shrinking – little has changed since last week’s major review. And Treasuries continue to ask for more, threatening that the Fed will not come when manufacturing growth reaches stall speed, but when it is already negative.
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Q1 2022 hedge fund correspondence, conferences and more
Former Lone Pine PM Mala Gaonkar Presents ServiceNow Thesis Sa Sohn
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That would mean a recession, possibly more than two quarterly GDP prints that would be negative. Another obvious consequence is for the low timing of the stock market-the longer the series of significant rate increases and balance sheet shrinks the Fed is forced to enter, the more liquidity will be lost, and I will show pockets with relative strength within the waning financial universe only. . Yes, even the goods can’t escape unscathed – usually they last until peak. And that’s what we’re seeing now – crude oil still has a few weeks and more than two dollars higher to run. I hope you enjoyed the great earnings in black gold – the portfolio chart performance is at new highs with the $ 50K account model after 16 months standing at over $ 260K – see my homepage. And open short profits in the stock market continue to grow.
Friday also brought higher performance precious metals-decoupling daily as confidence in the Fed was questioned. The miners have risen to a strong volume – cracks in the dam are appearing, and precious metals will benefit. Gold especially as both silver and then copper will be caught due to the sourness of the real economic prospects. Just look at the central banks recently – Australia, India rising above expectations, ECB also to start its taper. The Fed’s upcoming actions will destroy much of demand, which seeks to control inflation eventually – and they are threatening to shrink, the narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit has been said.
Aside from the stock market problems not over yet (the downswing is likely to continue because volume doesn’t indicate the lowest in the area), let me present three richly annotated real asset charts to illustrate where we are at the moment – essentially metals:
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Updated on Jun 13, 2022, 1:07 pm
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